Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2028?
AI MathMathIMO Grand Challenge
Basic
44
Ṁ5.7k
2029
90%
chance
DeepMind Announces Silver Performance on 2024 IMO
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/

Same as this market, but for AI that gets gold on an IMO from 2023 through 2028.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/

Some other markets in this sequence, in case this is unarbed:

/BoltonBailey/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat-2b53f4a252d8

/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

/BoltonBailey/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat-960238cde8c2

/BoltonBailey/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat-7dc55f5046a3

bought Ṁ150 YES

I’m assuming this will be resolved based on how many problems will AI be able to solve, not based on whether it’s actually awarded a medal. Is that right?

@OlegEterevsky as a no bettor on these markets, that is also what I assume, and what seems fair to me.

@OlegEterevsky Yes, that is right, that is how I interpret the criteria of the linked market.

For reference

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