Why did this market go up over the past few hours? Do people think Deepmind's post makes it likelier that another group has a really impressive result they are about to reveal?

@BoltonBailey This can resolve NO, thank you! The annual competition is complete.

@10thOfficial I agree that this is almost certain to resolve NO. However, the main market which this is meant to mimic the resolution criteria for has its close date at the end of the year. I can only assume this is because someone announcing a successful IMO gold months after the competition will be considered fair game, so I will respect that possibility.

In a paper published today in Nature, we introduce AlphaGeometry, an AI system that solves complex geometry problems at a level approaching a human Olympiad gold-medalist - a breakthrough in AI performance. In a benchmarking test of 30 Olympiad geometry problems, AlphaGeometry solved 25 within the standard Olympiad time limit. For comparison, the previous state-of-the-art system solved 10 of these geometry problems, and the average human gold medalist solved 25.9 problems.

(src)

There is someone that is planning to make a submission for the 2024 IMO grand challenge:
https://leanprover.zulipchat.com/#narrow/stream/208328-IMO-grand-challenge/topic/Current.20status.3F/near/388204398

"By" 2024 excludes the 2024 IMO, except if it was held before 2024. The text includes the 2024 IMO. @BoltonBailey could you please clear this up? Maybe "by end of 2024"?

@Primer (not the market creator) The description is correct. All these IMO markets use an inclusive "by" (so "by the end of ...")

@FlorisvanDoorn Then I'd suggest changing "by" to "by end of" in all of those ;)

ChatGPT:

As an AI language model, I don't have access to the most up-to-date information on the progress of artificial intelligence (AI) in solving math problems, and the probability of AI getting IMO gold medals. However, assuming that the probabilities for AI getting IMO gold medals in 2024 and 2025 are independent events, the chance of AI getting IMO gold by 2024 would still be 40%. The probability of an independent event is not affected by the outcome of other independent events.

@BoltonBailey well, if an about-to-be IMO gold medalist says that the probability is 40%, it must be quite likely 😂