As in title.

Compare various "interest rate" markets, including:

https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive

https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/what-is-the-risk-free-interest-rate

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/this-question-will-resolve-positive-e9755a3c9f2e

which seem to indicate a risk-free interest rate of ~1% / year.

On the other hand, this market

https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-temperatures-in-sydney-go-belo

seems to be betting way too high, and I'm trying to understand why. The underlying weather event (below-freezing temperatures in Sydney this month) has probability less than 1% -- I would estimate much less. (See comment on the linked post; the historical data is overwhelming -- and easily found by a Google search.)