Currently, the market resolves NO, and thus the prompt is correct. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO. But the manner of Manifold complicates this. The prompt is asking if the market resolves NO, and if the market resolves NO, then technically the market is resolving NO to the prompt stating the market is resolving NO. So people who agree with the prompt stated should bet YES. But if the market resolves YES, it did not resolve NO, meaning that the prompt is false, despite users betting YES on the prompt. So in theory the market should resolve NO but bet yes
This market resolves NO
161
Ṁ1kṀ79k2030
1.3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to NO at the end of 2029.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Interesting that this one went to nearly 0% right away, but the one below seems to have stabilized at a 30% discount rate.
https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-5c753f5a33e1
Ponzists - see https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a latest comments