If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Paradox

255

Ṁ2.2K

Ṁ490

2040

50%

chance

ALL

If AI wipes out humanity, this resolves YES if mana still has any value, and NO if it doesn't. Since by definition I won't be around to handle resolution, I'll leave the details of determining that to whoever is, but one suggested procedure could be to attempt to barter mana for resources/social status and resolve YES if any successful trade is made (no matter how poor the exchange rate). I volunteer any remaining mana in my account to be used for this purpose, if needed.

If AI doesn't wipe out humanity, this resolves N/A at close.

To the haters who say "if this resolves NO then by definition it will be worthless to the winners"... well, let's just not think about that too hard.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Will this market be resolved yes by the Mana Maximizer bot that wipes out humanity?

@DavidBolin It should resolve YES in that case, but if that bot holds a NO position in this market there's a risk of misresolution.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I also made this to satire the

AI risk markets. Sadly, it is an arb to buy both to 100

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

30% chance. Conditional on AI wiping out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational? This market is meant to tease apart the components of other AI ex-risk markets, disambiguating AI ex-risk and Platform risk. This market will resolve yes if humanity is wiped out by 2030 AND Manifold i…

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Presumably using mana directly to make questions or get mana-chan to tweet counts as value?

@MartinRandall That's up to the AI I guess but in my opinion yes. We will use a very generous definition of value, if it's not utterly useless then that will count as having value.

@A On the other hand if we do get wiped out by AI, that's probably because its values are significantly different from ours, so maybe I shouldn't speculate on whether it will consider mana-chan tweets to have value or not 😂

This isn’t helpful because the mana only matters if it resolves YES, so it’s essentially the same problem as all the other “ai wipes out humanity” markets.

predicts NO

@ShadowyZephyr Mana could matter either way with the other "wipes out humanity" markets. It's only this market where mana is guaranteed to be useless if it resolves No. Resolving yes only matters if you give your mana to an AI.

@ShadowyZephyr TBH this market is mostly a satire of the AI doom ones, see last paragraph of the description...

@ShadowyZephyr This market also has the fun property that even though I think most people agree it will almost certainly resolve N/A or NO, a rational profit-maximizing trader should still bet YES...

predicts YES

@A Yeah, I was thinking it should converge to 100% for the slim chance that AI values mana (and wipes out humanity).

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr Yes, precisely. And yet it trades around 50%, how curious!