This question resolves to "YES" if the daily min temperature in Sydney, Australia is below freezing (-1C or lower) on any date in October, as reported by wunderground.com.
https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/YSSY/date/2022-10
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I understand that weather in Sydney has been pretty weird lately, and climate change is hitting hard, but I just want to put this question into a bit more perspective for casual users who aren't on the east coast of Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has daily minimum temperatures for Sydney's 'Observatory Hill' station from 1 January 1859 to 31 August 2020 available here.
Out of 58897 daily observations across those years, the lowest recorded temperature at Observatory Hill was 2.1 C on 22 June 1932.
The Sydney Airport station (which is the source for resolution of this market) opened in 1929, and we've got daily minimum data available here.
Out of 30425 daily observations at Sydney Airport, only one has ever been below 0C: on 23 July 1943, they recorded -0.1C. That's not in October, and not low enough to trigger the '(-1C or lower)' positive resolution of this market.
Looking at October 'minimum daily temperature' observations at Sydney Airport in particular, we see:
Lowest Ever: 4.8 C
Mean: 13.4 C
Median: 13.4 C
Standard Deviation: 2.8 C
While the wider Sydney metropolitan area has seen below freezing temperatures (-8 C in Richmond, famously), I think the current market is likely still overpriced.
@galen Agreed.
This is my first market, and I wanted to test out how the system works. I considered "this market resolves to NO", but I figured this Sydney weather market would be more interesting while achieving essentially the same result. Of course, there is always the (extremely small) chance that Sydney freezes over next week!
@Boklam Fyi based on this comment I've moved the probability to a more reasonable number. However, if this comment hadn't been posted I wouldn't have bothered to research the base rate. There's a big difference between a market that is obviously almost impossible and one that is almost impossible but takes some knowledge to realize it, that is the main reason for the market price being higher than it should here.
@jack here's another example for one that is obviously nearly impossible where the market correctly bet it down a lot