This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
21
35
240
2028
99%
chance

This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month

Get Ṁ200 play money