This question is an attempt, similar to https://manifold.markets/dreev/biden-quiescence and https://manifold.markets/jack/will-biden-be-president-on-915-reso and so forth, to find a self-resolving mechanism that works well.

At close, I will roll a twenty-sided die. On a roll of 20, I will resolve this according to my best judgement. Otherwise, I will resolve this to the market probability.

The idea is that this sort of market is mostly, but not completely, self resolving. The creator needs to invest the time and effort in judging the resolution of only 5% of the markets they create this way, and similarly the market participants only need to actively trust the judgement of the market creator in 5% of the cases.

So while this mechanism doesn't give us a true self-resolving market, at least it gives us a 20x force multiplier for resolution capacity. An interesting further question might be how far this could be extended: if we successfully create a 20x force multiplier this way, could 100x also work? What about 1,000x, or 10,000x?