What is the probability that Hans Niemann cheated in the September 4 chess game against Magnus Carlsen in the Sinquefield Cup?

Background: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/crosswords/hans-niemann-magnus-carlsen-cheating-accusation.html

Resolution

If conclusive evidence emerges, resolves to YES if he cheated or NO if he did not. Otherwise, resolves to market probability at the time of close.

The market close time will be quasi-randomly extended if there is still ongoing trading activity; using a procedure similar to that described in https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/is-the-sky-blue-resolves-to-mkt. This is to avoid encouraging big last-minute trades to move the market. The close time will be no earlier than 10/15 and no later than 10/30.

(The intent is if the market collectively decides for example 75% chance that he cheated based on the available evidence, then this market should end up at about 75%.)

Related:

Close date updated to 2022-10-16 7:09 am

Close date updated to 2022-10-30 11:59 pm