Will Biden be president on November 7, 2022? (90% chance of resolving to quiescent market price)
10
24
260
resolved Nov 12
Resolved as
96%

Let's combine /zzq/will-biden-still-be-president-at-th and /dreev/biden-quiescence.

  1. This market will stay open until the end of Nov 7.

  2. The market will then stay open until the market price fully quiesces, meaning that it varies by at most 1% during some 72-hour period.

  3. With probability 90%, it resolves the quiescence price.

  4. Otherwise it resolves to whether Biden was president on Nov 7.

    Close date updated to 2022-11-11 12:26 pm

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predicted YES

The market hasn't moved by more that 1% in the first 72 hours after the end Nov 7, so that's quiescence.


I will look at the first block after midnight UTC here: https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/blocks/btc, take the last 8 hex digits of the hash, and convert them to decimal. I will resolve to YES if it is a multiple of 10, and MKT if it's not.

predicted YES

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/blocks/btc/762776

Last 8 digits: 0x1ec56af69 = 8260071273

Not a multiple of 10, so I'm resolving MKT.

predicted YES

For future reference—this randomization method was off by approximately one in ten billion. That's really pretty close—I don't think it matters much, so whatever. But if one is trying to be scrupulous about accurate resolution, one should keep in mind this slight flaw.

There are 2^32 - 1 = 4294967295 potential values represented by 8 hex digits, and out of them 429496730 end with a decimal zero. 429496730 / 4294967295 = 0.10000000011641533, so it's a pretty good approximation of 0.1—but it's not exactly 0.1, because 2^32 - 1 isn't divisible by 10.

Again, this isn't all that important, especially in a relatively low-stakes context like this one. I'm writing this here to have it on the record, for people to take into account as they see fit when deciding on randomization methods for resolving future markets.

bought Ṁ143 of YES

This market is going to quiesce in a couple of hours!

bought Ṁ0 of YES

This could maybe be used to create amplified odds markets with higher RoI:

I thought time travel was banned on manifold. So much alpha I've missed

bought Ṁ300 of YES

@GeorgeVii I guess the URL will be October 38th :D

Will Biden be president on October 7, 2022? (90% chance of resolving to quiescent market price), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition