Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?
20
58
280
2032
60%
chance

Did the NSA interfere with the NIST PQC standardization process with the intent of making the resulting cryptosystem more susceptible to attack?

This market resolves to MKT shortly after close---early January 2032. There will be no early resolution. (Otherwise there would be too strong of a bias towards YES.)

I may resolve the market by hand, rather than to MKT, if there's evidence that the market isn't functioning correctly. For instance, if overwhelming evidence is clearly being ignored, if the market is far from the consensus of crypto professionals, etc. The purpose of this disclaimer is to make sure the Keynesian beauty contest stays on track.

Some context: http://blog.cr.yp.to/20220805-nsa.html

Aug 5, 7:36pm: Because of the risk that the resolution requires some judgement call, I will not be betting in this market.

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I don't think it did.