Resolves to MKT (meaning resolves to whatever the market probability is at the time of close).

The market close time will be quasi-randomly extended if there is still ongoing trading activity; using a procedure similar to what @MartinRandall describes on the market linked below. This is to avoid encouraging big last-minute trades to move the market.

• Update: added more details on this process in my latest comments below.

I will bet in this market and may bet in any direction.

Motivation: There are many ambiguous, hard-to-resolve questions that people have created on Manifold that use a "self-resolving" mechanism of resolving to the market probability (see examples in https://manifold.markets/group/selfresolving and in the comments). However, there are many concerns about how well such mechanisms work and how reliable they are especially against price manipulation.

This question asks whether Biden will be president on September 15. But instead of me determining the resolution, this is a "self-resolving" market. This experiment uses a question that could easily be resolved by conventional means so we can evaluate how well it did, and potentially apply those lessons to other self-resolving markets that are harder to resolve with objective resolution criteria. This is an experiment inspired by discussion with @dreev and @MartinRandall, see this market:

Note that the question is still about Biden's presidency on 9/15 regardless of when the market actually closes (the idea @dreev proposed was that theoretically the market should converge to nearly 100% after the outcome becomes certain - I am more skeptical).

Close date updated to 2022-09-17 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-18 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-19 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-22 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-25 11:59 pm

Sep 25, 4:17pm: Current proposal (summarizing the comments): The market will close with a Poisson process during the window 9/26 through 9/30. Starting 9/26, shortly after the end of each day (UTC time), close with probability 1/3 using a public verifiable random number generator. After the end of September 30, close unconditionally. On close, compute an (exact or approximate) average (mean) market probability over that preceding day (24 hours, midnight to midnight UTC time), and resolve to this value.

Note: Midnight UTC = 5pm Pacific, 8pm Eastern.

Close date updated to 2022-09-30 8:00 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-26 8:10 pm