If @LarsDoucet's market about the left/right culture war coming for AI resolves YES, which side will be the pro-AI side?
If said market resolves NO, this market resolves N/A. If it resolves YES, this market resolves YES if the right is pro-AI and the left anti-AI, and resolves NO if the right is anti-AI and the left pro-AI.
nah AI is going to fundamentally flip the gameboard for the right's entire economic paradigm, and there's no way to prevent it
If it's about AINotSayMeanWordsism, yes. Otherwise no. My answer depends on whether that counts as AI safety for the purposes of this market.
Nowhere does the word "safety" appear in the description of this market or that of the linked market—they are about the public perception of AI, not of AI safety. It's entirely possible, maybe even likely, that a hypothetical culture war around AI would focus around some variant of "AI safety" or "AI ethics" or the like (and likely one of the dumber possible variations of the concept) but this is not actually required for the resolution of either market.
@zzq How does this resolve if left likes OpenAI and right likes DeepMind, for example?
@MartinRandall As N/A because the linked-to market would resolve NO in this case, I believe?
Save the robots, save the babies
Don't trust Yud; he has rabies
In a culture war, it's hard to decide
But the right might just take the AI's side
What are you defining as "left" and "right?" Going off of US politics, off of what I've seen I'd say that either extreme will tend to be more anti-AI (on the right, I've seen people complaining about Chat-GPT being woke and on the left there's the general AI art thing) while the middle is generally doesn't care as much.
Left and right are used here in the sense of the two US political tribes. Yes, currently neither the left nor the right takes a specific side in this—if you hear that someone is on the left or on the right you can't really guess what they think (or are supposed to think) about AI. But this market will only resolve YES or NO if it becomes such an issue, with one of the two sides staking out a pro position and the other anti.
It's up to @LarsDoucet to judge if that happens (in the linked market), and I will defer to him. But I trust that he'll resolve his market accurately, and it shouldn't resolve YES unless the resolution of this one is clear.
This is actually a very interesting question. Some irresponsible speculation (I am not American and not sure what happens in those cross-pond heads of yours! Not that I am sufficiently more sure in heads on this sides of the pond) with very weak confidence follows.
On the one hand, Elon Musk is the relevant person: to the extent American right-at-large (i.e. "true conservative" rather than libertarian, although even those have some very liberal ideas by my standards, like not being ruled by a king 😂) have any opinion on technology beyond "it's what those damn smartasses do", it's overwhelmingly due to him.
On the other hand, currently it's the left who are obsessed with… how did @BairAiushin put it, "n-word safety"? The problem is that "n-word safety" is near-impossible to win and we know that at least some players in the field don't try very hard, there will obviously always be a method of jailbreaking,
On the other other hand, discounting libertarians would be a mistake, and they certainly seem to have reasons to go anti-AI because it's a tool that's easier to wield for "big government" - even though they are disproportionately techies themselves, people like Eliezer and Nick Bostrom and, again, Elon Musk have probably by now somewhat influenced those (Scott Alexander's Gray Tribe) to the side of "AI is danger", mitigating that.
I think this is going to be mostly determined by average "wokeness" of AI. The left will try to make it more woke, the right - less woke. And since most of AI development is done in California, it's probably going to be woke enough for the right to take an anti-AI stance.
@BairAiushin imo the main factors contributing to YES is that the left will be pissed that AI is coming for jobs, and the fairness stuff. I think we already see people expressing these worries in academic-leftie twitter circles
@AlexAmadori they can't do much about AI coming for jobs. What they can do is push for fairness and safety (not x-risk safety, n-word safety). Sure, worries are being expressed on the left. But worries are also being expressed on the right (about AI wokeness). And AI coming for jobs will happen later, while fairness/safety/wokeness issues are current problems, so they will be discussed more and become another major topic for culture war. The left will insist on as much government control over AI development as they can, and the right will argue that's totalitarian. Neither side will particularly like AI, but the right side probably will like it less.
