That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?
I will grade this as true if it seems obvious that they are ahead in most fields of AI. This will be based on technology; not commercialization; if OpenAI has an advanced AI sitting in a lab, but Google has a slightly weaker one that has made $10 billion, OpenAI will still win.
Anything developed in-house at DeepMind will be considered to come from an AI-specific company; anything developed at the rest of Google will be Big Tech. If the distinction has blurred by 2028, I might resolve this as N/A if that becomes the deciding factor.
If a Chinese or other foreign company is in the lead, I will resolve this based on whether they are the Chinese equivalent of Big Tech or a new AI specific company. If a government or other institution is in the lead, I will ignore them, and judge only the difference between Big Tech and specific companies.
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@ScottAlexander Sorry, re-reading this, I think "If the distinction has blurred by 2028, I might resolve this as N/A if that becomes the deciding factor." means that if GDM is ahead, I'll probably N/A it.
@Dominik the way I see it, it means free mana for YES holders in 2028... except for the cop out N/A possible resolution outlined in the description
@vmjusto The description states Deepmind counts as an AI company, not Big Tech. So it should hold for OpenAI/Microsoft as well, even if OpenAI is completely acquired by MS.
@PS Let me put it this way: it is impossible that these companies will not be heavily identified with their parent companies by then, including personnel exchange, facilities shared, etc. So I can only project this as either a YES or a N/A.
@vmjusto If the question was about today, it would resolve NO. So there has to be a change from the current situation. That’s absolutely possible, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed. (If you do, feel free to bet this to 100% 😃)