If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
14
1kṀ9582026
35%
chance
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The resolution source is the Southwest Land Border Encounters series by the US border Patrol.
If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A.
I will use the number shown on the site upon release of the data for all of FY 2025. Note that it appears that this dataset does get updated retroactively. The earliest available data will be used (excluding projections)
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Shump the description says “FY 2025” which doesn’t match the title… is that a typo? And do you have another market for the other year?
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