If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
Standard
12
แน8582026
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The resolution source is the Southwest Land Border Encounters series by the US border Patrol.
If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A.
I will use the number shown on the site upon release of the data for all of FY 2025. Note that it appears that this dataset does get updated retroactively. The earliest available data will be used (excluding projections)
Partner market for Biden:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020?
40% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he win the popular vote?
43% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote?
43% chance
If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
78% chance
Will 2024 have more estimated illegal boarder crossings to the U.S. than in 2023?
57% chance
If Harris wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
65% chance
If Trump wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?
37% chance
If Harris wins, will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
74% chance
Will Trump win the US Presidential election?
46% chance
In 2024, will more or fewer Chinese nationals enter the US illegally through the Mexican border than in 2023?
Yes=more
72% chance