Eric's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.24
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Eric bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
- How long will I continue the SMTM potato diet?YESṀ10
- Conditional on the SMTM potato study yielding credible positive results, "Potato Diet would fix this" will become a recognizable internet memeNOṀ10
- Will supplementing potassium (gluconate, pills) cause any distinct-from-noise weight loss over 4 weeks?NOṀ10
30%
40%
- Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 30 lose more that 20lbs over 4 weeks?NOṀ20
- Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 25 lose more than 10lbs over 4 weeks?YESṀ20
- Will I learn the Japanese kana by the end of the month?NOṀ6
50%
60%
- Will Elizabeth II become the longest-reigning sovereign monarch with exact verified dates?NOṀ20
- Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 25 lose more than 10lbs over 4 weeks?YESṀ15
- Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 30 lose more than 10lbs over 4 weeks?YESṀ12
70%
80%
90%