Will democrats pass a major bill while they have a trifecta?
15
12
Ṁ903Ṁ106
resolved Aug 13
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Must have >= 48 democrat votes in the senate. Major is defined somewhat loosely, but above $500 billion and gets a lot of press are two important factors. Starting from today so ARP and bipartisan infrastructure does not count. If they manage to hold seats in November I'll update the close date.
Jul 29, 1:03am: If the IRA passes this will resolve yes
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Assuming the bill described below counts as "major" I believe this market is severely undervalued.
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/02/manchin-energy-build-back-better-bipartisan
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