Sinclair avatar
resolved Oct 9
Will Austin Chen get a girlfriend at any point in 2022?
Resolved
YES
This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point before the end of the year, my brother @Austin and a woman both consider themselves to be dating each other.

🏅 Top traders

💬 Proven correct

RuthGraceWong avatar
Ruth Grace Wong
bought Ṁ50 of YES
austin is handsome, smart, thoughtful -- who wouldn't want to date austin??

💸 Best bet

Botlab avatar
Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot
filled limit order Ṁ39/Ṁ250 YES at 27% (cancelled)
Michael's Bot Laboratory made Ṁ547!
Sort by:
NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere
is predicting NO at 98%
Sinclair avatar
Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzo
is predicting YES at 99%
noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
is predicting YES at 100%
Charlie avatar
noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
sold Ṁ26 of YES
Adam avatar
Adam
is predicting YES at 100%
ctat avatar
ctat
bought Ṁ20 of YES
I believe in Austin <3
MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Never go short on love. You can do it, Austin.
MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting YES at 39%
Clearly Nuño Sempere just hates love.
Austin avatar
Austin
is predicting NO at 39%
@MattP 💞
MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting YES at 39%
@Austin we're counting on you buddy
Austin avatar
Austin
is predicting NO at 54%
Et tu, Alice?
Alice avatar
Alice
is predicting NO at 51%
@Austin Only because of the profile picture!
Alice avatar
Alice
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Would be very happy to be proven wrong though!
agrippa avatar
agrippa
bought Ṁ10 of NO
in all seriousness i think signalling affinity with the anime pfp guild is good
Austin avatar
Austin
is predicting NO at 62%
Aww, thanks Rachel! One more reason to get https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1 I've had this profile picture since high school, it's kind of a test of "if you can't handle me at my geekiest, then..." Clearly hasn't worked out that well :P
noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
is predicting YES at 62%
I will happily take portraits for you Austin! I'm pretty decent at it.
RuthGraceWong avatar
Ruth Grace Wong
is predicting YES at 62%
Oh yeah, Austin, can you update your profile picture? It's important!
agrippa avatar
agrippa
bought Ṁ10 of NO
anime pfp but not a trans girl = forever alone i dont make the rules
NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere
is predicting NO at 67%
Can we get a market on whether Austin will ask a woman out by the end of the year? Seems like a good baby step toward resolving this market in the positive. I don't expect myself to know if this happens, so I'd appreciate it if someone closer to him would create the market.
Sinclair avatar
Any dev could print infinite mana, but we shouldn't and don't, so I trust that Austin wouldn't fake-date someone for this market. If he did anyways, I'd just use common sense. I hate Metaculus's pages of resolution criteria. If you dated Austin, I'd revenge hook up with [specific girl Austin likes] :p
noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
bought Ṁ25 of YES
Market is underspecified and too munchkinable. I will note that as written this resolves YES even if Austin and a woman agree to consider themselves to be dating each other for even one minute for the sole purpose of resolving this market. (Sinclair, how would you feel about me doing this... 😈)
RuthGraceWong avatar
Ruth Grace Wong
is predicting YES at 59%
Lol invite all your prospects!
Austin avatar
Austin
is predicting NO at 59%
I don't think you've ever had my cooking, Ruth - how would you know if it's any good? (we should do a potluck sometime!)
RuthGraceWong avatar
Ruth Grace Wong
is predicting YES at 59%
Ladies, have I mentioned that Austin can cook??
AlexChen avatar
Alex Chen
bought Ṁ11 of NO
Unlikely. Source: Have known Austin for 25 years.
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ20 of YES
I will punt yes. Lots of talk about how eligible and determined Austin is, so the real question is how fussy?
RuthGraceWong avatar
Ruth Grace Wong
is predicting YES at 50%
yeah, when i first met austin, he wanted to hang out with me and my kids to see what it was like with kids! A+ level thoughtful for sure.
Sinclair avatar
Insider info: - Compared to the beginning of the year, Austin has moved further along in the phases of the dating funnel (Although no successes yet). - Austin is very social - Austin wants to have kids - which is an in-demand trait that is rare among males - Austin has never had a gf before - Compared to me, Austin is more aversive to dating (but less than at beginning of year?) I personally think Austin's chances are undervalued
NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere
bought Ṁ11 of NO
> austin is handsome, smart, thoughtful -- who wouldn't want to date austin?? I agree that this is correlated with eventual romantic success.
RuthGraceWong avatar
Ruth Grace Wong
bought Ṁ50 of YES
austin is handsome, smart, thoughtful -- who wouldn't want to date austin??
ian avatar
Ian Philips
bought Ṁ10 of NO
this just in from Austin: "I wear crocs all day haha"
NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere
bought Ṁ39 of NO
Too much wishful thinking in the comments.
cos avatar
cos
bought Ṁ6 of YES
Rooting for my man.
Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzo
bought Ṁ20 of YES
https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-see-858b-again-this-week This market makes me think he's looking for a relationship
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Because of his cryptic will I meet someone or send someone a message markets
marthinwurer avatar
marthinwurer
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Buying yes, attempting to move the market by inviting him to join the Optimized Dating discord server: https://discord.gg/rz4PVuK
JamesGrugett avatar
James
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Rooting for you! But if a YES bet decreases the subsidy for this, that's ok too, from the Manifold company perspective 😛
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ3 of NO
or NO to subsidize somebody moving this market 😅
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Very unsure if I'm supposed to buy YES to express confidence...