Will the Supreme Court leaker's identify be known by 2023?
Jan 2, 2023
This market resolves to YES if, at some point on or before 1/1/23, the identity of the person who leaked the draft SCOTUS abortion decision is known with high confidence. For example, if a major news source confidently the identity as fact, or if the leaker admits it, or if the Supreme Court takes action against someone. I will roughly base my decision on whether I think there's an 80%+ chance the named person is responsible.
I believe a 54% probability is way too low, so I've pushed it higher to 60% My reasoning: 1. There are two options for who leaked this a. It is someone from within b. Somehow, an external party got access to internal documents and decided to leak these. Because of the sensitivity of the issue at hand (abortion rights), and the fact that it has never happened before, I would place a much higher probability on option a, maybe somewhere around 85%. 2. If you assume it came from the inside, there are only a limited number of people who could conceivably access this information. This drastically limits the number of "suspects". 2. If the person who leaked this did it from the inside, they are most likely trained as a lawyer. This could give some indications that they don't have the required computer knowledge of how to leak documents like this while preserving anonymity to a high degree. A small caveat: they could have been coached by the news organisation on how to do this, so the influence of this factor could be lower. 3. The supreme court has a large incentive to investigate who leaked this. Again, this has never happened before and seriously hinders the judicial process. Additionally, it's embarrassing which is always a great motivator. 4. If you assume it came from an external source, everything gets more complicated. If you have the skills to get these documents, you likely also have the skills to do it in a way that makes catching you very hard. That is why I believe the probability is not much higher than 60%. 5. The time limit also decreases the probability estimate. If the horizon was over 5 years, I believe the probability would increase a lot, but there are only 7 months left in 2022 which might not be sufficient.