Will SMTM potato diet finishers still be down >5lbs on average after 6 months?

Science•Health•Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)

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resolved Jan 27

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The question resolves YES if the 6 month follow up to the SMTM potato diet community trial (https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/07/12/lose-10-6-pounds-in-four-weeks-with-this-one-weird-trick-discovered-by-local-slime-hive-mind-doctors-grudgingly-respect-them-hope-to-become-friends/) shows people who finished the initial diet and complete the follow-up averaging at least 5lbs below their pre-diet weight.

The average at the end of the 1 month diet for finishers was -10.6lbs so this question is intended to be about whether they re-gain substantial amounts of weight in the intervening 6 months not being part of the diet trial.

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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Natália 🔍

@mold_time @trishume This market https://manifold.markets/TristanHume/will-smtm-potato-diet-finishers-sti should resolve to NO.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

This should resolve to NO: https://twitter.com/mold_time/status/1618734247757623297?s=46&t=ifXYl8kc5YS_KJ3bVaUSqg

One of the worst diets imaginable…. But it’s rumored if you only eat ~three or four foods that are natural for your ancestry (rules out most modern processed junk) you’ll be pretty healthy

Food variety is unnatural; and easy decisions make things easy; on that basis this is on the right track

predicted NO

They plan an official follow-up survey after 6 months that presumably they'll publish. I'll resolve the question based on their blog post or my own analysis of the raw data if the blog post doesn't have the right number (I assume any post will), regardless of any evidence of misconduct. I can't detect all distortion and it's hard to be fair about adjudicating such claims so you should just adjust your estimated probability up to the extent you expect misconduct.

predicted NO

@TristanHume Thanks for the detailed answer!

What happens if there is evidence they skipped some participants? I do not know whether they will keep in touch with me

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Will there be an official follow-up survey after 6 months?

bought Ṁ15 of YES

"relatively smart/motivated people who are have lost weight and choose to report their weight 6 months later" seems like a pretty well-selected group for this to hold true for! I bet against the potato dieters losing a bunch of weight, but I think I'll bet for this one, especially at the current odds.