Will Patrick Rothfuss release “Doors of Stone” before December 31, 2024?
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190
2025
12%
chance

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@ian this unsubsidized duplicate market was on the very top of my feed with a gemstone icon...seems something was not computed correctly.

@Eliza You converted by commenting on this market!! You must love it

@ian I did trade on the subsided version of the market and almost traded on this one 😂 Not gonna fall for these tricks!

predicts YES

@EvanDaniel

Oooof. Didn’t see that before posting!

Thanks for bringing this up.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Some evidence:

  1. Book publishing timelines are relatively long. Books have to be delivered to the printer around 3 months before release and marketing campaigns (especially for a book as big as this) usually start much earlier. It seems likely that if the book is going to come out in 2024, Rothfuss would have to finish a draft by summer at the latest (to give his publisher enough cconfidence that the book will actually come out) and possibly earlier.

  2. No comments from either Rothfuss or his publisher that the book will come out in 2024.

  3. He promised to release an excerpt last year but failed to do so, even after several months (see here). If the book were really close to being finished, he would probably be able to find some excerpt to release.

  4. It's been more than 12 years since the last book in the series.