How many new novels will Brandon Sanderson release between today (July 27, 2023) and December 31, 2030?
13
410Ṁ284
2031
20
expected

Novel for these purposes means a published work that is at least 50,000 words. Any collections published (e.g. a new volume of Arcanum Unbounded) will be counted only if the collection includes a new (previously unpublished) piece that is at least 50,000 words.

Will not include any graphic novels.

  • Update 2025-12-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A prose version of White Sand will count toward the total, provided it meets the other requirements (published and exceeds 50,000 words), even though White Sand was previously published as graphic novels.

  • Update 2025-12-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tailored Realities (2025) will count toward the total because Moment Zero is a new work longer than 50,000 words.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Here's what I'm aware of so far.

  1. The Sunlit Man (2023)

  2. Defiant (2023)

  3. Dragonsteel Prime (2024)

  4. Wind and Truth (2024)

  5. Isles of the Emberdark (2025)

Does Tailored Realities (2025) count?

See State of the Sanderson 2025 / Projected Schedule.

@HankyUSA Tailored Realities will count because Moment Zero is new and longer than 50,000 words (per some articles I’ve looked up).

Will the prose version of white sand count? Since white sand was previously published as graphic novels, which don't count.

@ZadeTesting a prose version would count provided it meets the other requirements (i.e. published and exceeds 50000 words)

Do audiobooks count, if they don't get prose-book releases within the relevant time-window?

opened a Ṁ10 LOWER at 50% order

@js I'm a little disappointed that Dark One: Forgotten doesn't count because it's audio-exclusive.

How about anything he co-authors with Janci or Dan?

I'd say, any novel with his name on the cover, provided he contributed significantly to its writing, will count

My understanding of Skyward Flight (based on loose memory of a livestream) is that he gave Jancy an outline and they talked a lot during the writing process, but he didn't directly write any of the text himself because he was busy with other projects. His name is the primary one on the the cover, though.

Would Skyward Flight count if it had been released after this question was created?

@Joshua I'm going to say no. Just an outline doesn't count, substantial part of the actual text needs to be written by him

Seems fair to me.

YAY more fellow Sanderson enjoyers on the site!!

I would bet this significantly higher, however I hesitate because will undoubtedly be spending an increasing amount of time working on movie and TV production.

predictedHIGHER

@DavidChee that said if another pandemic happens who knows how high the number could go LOL

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy