Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Ṁ1kṀ29k

2031

39%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.

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A Song of Ice and Fire

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Lol the trading on this market triggered this ai generated article

https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/winds-winter-release-date-odds-manifold-prediction-market-traders-put-2030-book-odds-48-percent-1822059

The Winds of Winter Release Date Odds: Manifold Prediction Market Traders Put 2030 Book Odds at 48 Percent

Manifold Markets traders have placed new odds on George R.R. Martin's The Winds of Winter arriving by 2030, but no release date has been confirmed.

@jack Close date is Dec 31st 2030, so does this count a release in 2030? Perhaps could be better to title it "before 2031" if so?

Updated! Not sure how I made that mistake, embarrassing lol

Does GRRM have to be the sole author/alive when the book is formally announced? Or does a “Pale King” situation a la DFW count as a YES here for resolution purposes?

bought Ṁ100 NO

Just saw this question. Going by the text of the question, I think he doesn't have to be alive, but does have to be the sole author. (Though if I were writing a new question I would probably require him to be alive.)