Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026?
11
Ṁ2116
2027
14%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

    • Gwern publishes a standalone book available in print form before December 31, 2026

    • The book is authored solely by Gwern and is not part of a collection including works from multiple authors

  2. The market will resolve as "No" if:

    • Gwern does not publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026

    • Any published work is part of a collection with multiple authors

  3. For the purpose of this market:

    • A "standalone book" is defined as a written work authored solely by Gwern, not part of an anthology or collection with other authors

    • The book must be available for purchase in physical print format

Resolution Sources:

  • Official announcements from Gwern or his representatives

  • Listings on major book retailers (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble) confirming print availability

  • Reputable news articles or reviews confirming the publication

Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on December 31, 2026, or when a qualifying book by Gwern is officially published and available in print form, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:

  • The resolution does not depend on the book's content or subject matter

  • Digital-only publications do not qualify for a "Yes" resolution

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