Which year will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone"?
8
100Ṁ2372034
1.2%
2025
3%
2026
9%
2027
36%
2028
6%
2029
6%
2030
6%
2031
6%
2032
6%
2033
21%
Later than 2033 or never
This refers to the third book in the Kingkiller Chronicles, even if it winds up being published under a different name. The question will resolve to the year the first readers actually receive their copies (physical or digital), not to any pre-order date.
In case Rothfuss dies or the book has not been released by 2034, The question will be resolved to "Later than 2033 or never".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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