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close but no cigar

@strutheo next one: https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-nyc-subway-report-at-least-de04f59a84c3

Are we counting the National Guard?

@AndrewHartman whatever the report i linked counts in that table i guess

@strutheo I was memeing more than anything, here. Though you can consider it a sort of tacit reminder of the fact that the subway is a hellhole that evidently requires actual military personnel to maintain order, so . . .

extended a bit since the report isnt out yet, get your bets in!

No way this settles to YES:

• The billionth rider was on November 14th [1], suggesting 1.15B annual total

  • For 2022, this same logic [2] would have predicted 1.04B, which is very close to the true value

• Historically, the weekday ridership is 0.311-0.324% of the annual total (see the chart in the question description)

• This suggests 3.629m weekday riders

Several charts of 2023 also show ridership numbers far under 4 million [3].

The MTA's own forecasts don't show ridership returning to 2019 levels any time soon [4].

I have the largest position on NO, and I'd bet the question lower, but I don't want to lock up too much of my balance.

[1] https://www.amny.com/transit/nyc-subway-passes-1-billion-riders-2023/

[2] https://www.nydailynews.com/2022/12/27/mta-honors-bronx-resident-as-billionth-subway-rider-of-2022-she-gets-to-ride-more-for-free/

[3] https://metrics.mta.info/?ridership/daybydayridershipnumbers

[4] https://new.mta.info/document/122906