Active users
An active user is a user who has taken any action on the site.
58k yesterday; 67k avg last week
Active traders
An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
745 yesterday; 755 avg last week
Retention
What fraction of active traders are still active after the given time period?
New user retention
What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
Daily activity
Identity Verifications
Daily identity verification attempts and their outcomes.
Activation rate
Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
D1 average new user bets
On average for new users, how many bets did they place in the first 24 hours?
Ratio of Active Users
Total mana bet
Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
Home feed conversion rate
Interactions/views
,
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Top markets yesterday
Markets with the most activity in the past 24 hours.
Most traders
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)
412
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
293
YES
Is Joe Biden dead?
287
NO
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
243
YES
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
237
NO
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
169
YES
Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
164
Which country will win Euro 2024?
140
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
133
NO
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
131
YES
Most views
Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?
317
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
310
57%
Bitcoin price (USD)
204
85,443.90
September 2026 AI model releases
165
Opus 5.2 released in September?
161
14%
What will the "Yap" Section of Manifold be renamed to? [ADD ANSWERS]
118
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
94
39%
Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
88
Navier-Stokes Drama Prop Bets
88
(Week 2) NFL 2026 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide 🏈
86