Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
Aug 31

In the past, 538 has covered presidential debates by sponsoring polling of debate viewers and asking them who won. If they do this again for the first such debate in the 2024 election, this market resolves Yes if Biden wins and No if Trump wins, according to that polling.

If there are several questions polled about the candidates' debate performance, this question resolves based on the closest thing to the question "Overall, who do you think won the debate?"

If 538 does not sponsor their own polling but does have a definitive post-debate article covering other polling, perhaps averaging different polls of debate viewers, this market will resolve based on that coverage.

I will update this criteria as we learn more about the first debate and 538's coverage.

Resolves N/A if there is no debate between Biden and Trump, or if 538 does not do post-debate coverage with debate viewer polling.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

I hope they make the debate a live event

@AndrewCrosse I'm pretty sure it will be live streamed!

@Joshua great. I wish we had live stream markets once a week or at least once a month.

Biden has lower expectations, while Trump polls way ahead on most issues. Tough call who benefits.

I made a version of this market based on how manifold markets will move before and after the debate. For the republican nomination debate there were some shanigins because 538 didn't give a clear answer one way or the other.

when will it happen?


Odds of a debate happening now at 80%!

I think Biden benefits a lot from lowered expectations.

If it's a tie does this resolve 50%?

What if it's within the polling margin of error?

@MartinRandall I wouldn't do a 50% resolution, it would go to whoever is ahead even if it's within the margin of erort.

opened aṀ1,999 NO at 50% order

Thanks for the cheap YES shares

bought Ṁ50 YES

Low expectations will undoubtedly play in his favor. He’s still sharp when you’re not combing through clips for slip-ups. Biden camp seems quite content to hide this fact, perhaps it’s strategic

@EricBolton he's also got better material to work with, with a rapist opponent.

I figure this is a good question to ask with all this talk of senility.

In 2020, it looks like they sponsored an Ipsos poll for the first debate.

This poll didn't actually ask "who won?" as I would ideally like, but it did ask for a grade of the debate performances and Biden's performance was graded better so this market would have resolved Yes for that debate. Questions about likelihood to vote for the candidate or overall favorability are secondary to direct questions about the debate.

Hope that's all clear, but it's a tough question to make in advance without knowing what 538 will ask exactly.