Prize Market
Biden's debate performance was not well received.
Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516
Odds chart on Polymarket as of early July 4th.
But will he drop out by end of July 2024? If Biden is still the candidate in August 1st 2024, then the market will resolve NO. Anything else (death, resignation, incapacitation) will resolve as YES.
The Democratic Party convention is on August 19th 2024, so there is a possible "gray area" where Biden thinks he is running (has not said he's dropping out) but is not considered the party nominee officially.
In that unlikely scenario, we will use common sense and Democratic party statements. For example -- and this is very unlikely -- if the Democratic national party endorses another candidate publicly, or announces that Biden should step down and that there is a specific candidate would should replace him. That will also resolve in YES.
In other words, there are three scenarios where Biden steps down or is pushed out:
Biden steps down (makes a statement)
Biden is forced to step down (and acknowledges it)
Biden is forced to step down (but does not acknowledge it)
The market is primarily about the first case but all three resolve in YES.
If Biden is still the candidate but there is the possibility of an open convention, that still resolves NO. Since the convention is in August.
If the convention is set to replace Biden, this is well known, the party announces Biden needs to step down, he will not be the nominee, but Biden does not acknowledge this, that could still resolve as YES. Note that this specific outcome is very unlikely.
In the vast majority of cases, if Biden steps down or is forced out, "Team Biden" -- himself, Jill Biden, etc -- will make this clear in a statement. But this is not the only way that this market can resolve.
Related questions
My own stupid rule of thumb:
A calibrated market has both green red lines having form of parabolas, growing away from the current price.
Red line has a form type of sqrt, which usually means people are overconfident - by placing big orders close to the current price they do not even allow changes for the price (reduce their own potential gain from those orders).
My own prediction is 86%.
Here is what i mean by parabolas:
That is Tesla stock price market. Around the current price there is no wall bigger that the other curve. As we get closer to the price - confidence (totaal size of orders) decrease.
@nikki I have already spent all my mana. And i am not trying to convince people. I just express my observation.
@nikki you did not ruin anything, you just scaled it vertically and made it visually unreadable (but it still can be recovered from order book). The curve behaviour around the current price does not change when you scale it.
@Blomfilter it is not technical analysis. It is just unproven observation, but it has some elaboration. When you look at value further from the current price, you would expect mass of people to be more confident, that the real value is not diverging so far. Higher confidence leads to higher bets (at least in the manifold paradigm, where people often say that "put your money where you mouth" is a valid betting strategy).
In addition to that: closer value to the extreme, higher the multiplier of the potential outcome.
So I would expect that those two growing functions would present at least a linear function when multiplied, or in general parabola-type form.
When the curve represents x^y where y<1, then some non-default shenenigans are taking place. One of such things could be intention of the person at scope: when he tries to keep some probability at specific value (betting on poker players, they are not throwing dice and have a record of performance). Another thing is sentiment. That is what in my opinion takes place here. Note that this is about only limit order makers compound entity, not about the whole market user mass, that is why I said, that this is a stupid rule of thumb. (From another point of view limit makers are not some special people, so their performance can be taken as random sample)
Biden says heβs not quitting no matter what. But this Axios piece this morning is pretty intense.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/07/biden-democrats-drop-election-campaign
The ABC interview likely quelled no fears about Bidenβs mental fitnessβI think itβs more likely that Biden withdraws than the current consensus here (maybe like ~55-60%). I wouldnβt put it as high as poly as bidenβs team seems completely bought into what Freddie DeBour has coined the βblue MAGAβ reality distortion field.
This site has a significant democrat biasβthe dominant position for Trump immunity was 9-0 against Trump up until it was announced. It feels like people bet here on hopes and dreams instead of realistic outcome.
https://polymarket.com/event/biden-drops-out-in-july
Here is an equivalent Poly market to this one, until end of July. Priced slightly higher then here.
Mass governor calling for Biden to re-evaluate his re-election bid...
https://deepnewz.com/boston/massachusetts-governor-healey-urges-biden-to-reevaluate-reelection-bid-after
Polymarket has been pretty much flat at ~65% now all holiday weekend [for Biden to drop out at all, not before August, like this market] once the market settled
Meanwhile our market has moved a bit more. Jumping between ~39% and 52% it seems. Not yet a stable equilibrium.
But at this point it looks like we will should within that 39-52% band, taking out short term market fluctuations, unless there is serious news OR like a week passes [since this expires on August 1st so you should expect some decay toward zero at least on week-to-week basis]
Interesting ratio between Polymarket and this market. I think that ~20-30% discount kind of makes sense!
"The Case for Kamala" doc leaked from internal DNC conversations.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xVQ5GXHhl58g2cE35g11llVAUuCQ8Tqa4suUlUEq0DA/edit
Quite good and well written.
Here was the source
https://x.com/jessesingal/status/1809219270317846740
Democrats start moving to Harris as Biden digs in -- https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/kamala-harris-democrats-biden/index.html
I keep going back and forth on this:
These markets tend to overreact to news, but they also tend to spring back to where they were faster than is warranted. I don't really see a good reason for this to move much in either direction until we see how Senators answer questions when they're back in DC on Monday.
I'm not 100% sure we over-reacted here actually
big part of "YES" is something happening right away -- and once that option is exhausted, the market should snap back
Biden hit a trifecta yesterday
he made a statement
no sitting Democrats other than a few minor Congressmen came out against him
nothing else crazy happened -- no gaffes, statements from Bill Clinton, etc
All were pretty likely, but any of these could have changed the odds / vibe significantly.
As I think Nate Silver has been saying... Biden staying in means avoiding a large number of mines between now and November. The debate last week was him falling on one mine and it came close to sinking him. Can he survive another incident like that? The markets suggest maybe not.
Can Joe Biden avoid having one really bad day for 100 days? Maybe. Can he do that while campaigning.... we may or may not find out.
Him staying in seems like... an unstable equilibrium. Diamond Joe is a very tall pencil. It may not take a huge amount of effort to prop him up. But once he starts falling... better catch him quick.
IMO this market's prices for a dropout before July have been pretty reasonable, while the largest overreactions have been Polymarket dropping Biden's overall chances of winning to 8% at one point and having his chances of dropping out before november at 75%.
Predictit having Newsom peak at 33% was also hilariously bad. Everyone is settling down to mostly reasonable numbers though, aside from the part where Michelle Obama is ever above 1%.
Polymarket has a slight republican bias, manifold has a larger democrat bias and a larger Biden bias, which is why you'll always get decent odds betting against democrats.
To me, the pressure is only going to get worse. More state poll are going to come out in deep blue Bidenistan (New Jersey) with Trump leading 15 points and we're going to see electoral maps with Trump getting 300+ votes. The pressure will get worse, and polls will say voters don't want biden as a leader, don't think he's fit, think he's too old, etc. There's credible evidence that a ton of representatives and senators who do want him out (anonymously), and they'll probably get public soon.
I've actually just registered a predictit account to go steal more money from coping Nikki Haley stans (Trump at 95 cents to win nomination is a steal)
I actually don't think Biden at 8 is too unreasonable. It's definitely underpriced, but shoudn't be 18 like it is here. There's a bunch of clips going viral of Biden being confused and the nomination will be the least of his worries if he even gets there. Trump is showing no signs of stopping and just doesn't have to spectacularly fuck up with how polls are doing, while Biden has to restore America's faith in the age issue--something I'm unsure he's capable of doing.