Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
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resolved Jul 21
Resolved
YES

Biden's debate performance was not well received.

Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516

What a roller coaster it's been! With July 2/3 over... the Polymarket odds have oscillated from as high as 80-90% to well below 50% to now at 78% as of July 20th.

Of course this market is for Biden to drop out overall, not before the end of the month. Although the announcement could come any time, including this week.


But will he drop out by end of July 2024? If Biden is still the candidate in August 1st 2024, then the market will resolve NO. Anything else (death, resignation, incapacitation) will resolve as YES.

The Democratic Party convention is on August 19th 2024, so there is a possible "gray area" where Biden thinks he is running (has not said he's dropping out) but is not considered the party nominee officially.

In that unlikely scenario, we will use common sense and Democratic party statements. For example -- and this is very unlikely -- if the Democratic national party endorses another candidate publicly, or announces that Biden should step down and that there is a specific candidate would should replace him. That will also resolve in YES.

In other words, there are three scenarios where Biden steps down or is pushed out:
Biden steps down (makes a statement)

Biden is forced to step down (and acknowledges it)
Biden is forced to step down (but does not acknowledge it)

The market is primarily about the first case but all three resolve in YES.

If Biden is still the candidate but there is the possibility of an open convention, that still resolves NO. Since the convention is in August.

If the convention is set to replace Biden, this is well known, the party announces Biden needs to step down, he will not be the nominee, but Biden does not acknowledge this, that could still resolve as YES. Note that this specific outcome is very unlikely.

In the vast majority of cases, if Biden steps down or is forced out, "Team Biden" -- himself, Jill Biden, etc -- will make this clear in a statement. But this is not the only way that this market can resolve.

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Letter from Joe Biden, for those too entitled to check on Twitter while Manifold was down.

https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815080881981190320

Thanks the one star ratings. I'm sure you're all excellent people in real life.

You really shouldn't have resolved this based on an X post. You should have closed the market and waited for official confirmation from Biden himself.

I'm genuinely shocked he would announce something like this solely from his personal X account. I give small (but not infinitesimally so) odds that this was someone hacking his account.

Manifold went down for a bit right when they announced? Wasn’t able to load the app to make a last min trade

Sad to see Manifold crashing and not processing requests. We love this site but why does this always happen at times of high activity

I think you answered the question yourself

Is this market resolved with no proof? Where can I find the proof?

Link?

Link?

Link?

Uncle Joe will not seek re-election. Just announced. Congrats to those who got a bet in from 50% to 99%

Do you have a link to this?

Link?

Link?

Uncle Joe will not seek re-election. Just announced. Congrats to those who got a bet in from 50% to 99%

Where?

Announced where?

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