Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
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3.7M
Aug 2
67%
chance

Biden's debate performance was not well received.

Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516

Odds chart on Polymarket as of early July 8th. Biden to drop out hit as high as 82% and traded around 60-65% for days before dropping Monday morning.


But will he drop out by end of July 2024? If Biden is still the candidate in August 1st 2024, then the market will resolve NO. Anything else (death, resignation, incapacitation) will resolve as YES.

The Democratic Party convention is on August 19th 2024, so there is a possible "gray area" where Biden thinks he is running (has not said he's dropping out) but is not considered the party nominee officially.

In that unlikely scenario, we will use common sense and Democratic party statements. For example -- and this is very unlikely -- if the Democratic national party endorses another candidate publicly, or announces that Biden should step down and that there is a specific candidate would should replace him. That will also resolve in YES.

In other words, there are three scenarios where Biden steps down or is pushed out:
Biden steps down (makes a statement)

Biden is forced to step down (and acknowledges it)
Biden is forced to step down (but does not acknowledge it)

The market is primarily about the first case but all three resolve in YES.

If Biden is still the candidate but there is the possibility of an open convention, that still resolves NO. Since the convention is in August.

If the convention is set to replace Biden, this is well known, the party announces Biden needs to step down, he will not be the nominee, but Biden does not acknowledge this, that could still resolve as YES. Note that this specific outcome is very unlikely.

In the vast majority of cases, if Biden steps down or is forced out, "Team Biden" -- himself, Jill Biden, etc -- will make this clear in a statement. But this is not the only way that this market can resolve.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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What time zone?

bought Ṁ400 NO

Entire party in revolt? Thinks your VP is named Trump? Losing is every poll? Can’t even put together a coherent sentence? Your opponent can literally dodge bullets?

These are merely simple hurdles for diamond Joe

This is truly the market of all time

Biden appears closer to accepting he may have to leave race Idea he can’t win sinking in, people close to him say By Michael D. Shear, Peter Baker, and Katie Rogers NEW YORK TIMES

bought Ṁ25,000 YES

I can imagine what can be, unburdened by what has been.

You win the comments.

strong wager

Makes sense that the market is so volatile, as the battleground between the Biden administration and the broader Democratic party revolves around adversarially changing the anticipations of different demographic including very different kinds of elites..

I don’t understand that sentence but I think I agree

I think he said it is a social unstable feedback-loop.

Polymarket is definitely more trigger happy with news releases

What a swing in the market. I bought back in too early when it was in the 40% on its way down to 15% 😭

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sold Ṁ51 NO

Well, now it's snapped back! (And I lost some Mana, lol.)

What are you using for the timing of "Biden drops out" - if he issues some written or verbal statement announcing he's dropping out then that's what you'd use?

Like there is some version where you wait for some formal document he sends to the DNC, I don't know.

read the description

He’s dropping into a half-pipe. 🔥

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Financial Times:
https://www.ft.com/content/fbb27bfb-dabb-45d0-aa0e-d776bfa69f3c

Several influential donors and operatives said they expected Biden to step down. “Ninety per cent he’s out in days,” said a person who had been in touch with multiple Democratic representatives in Congress.

The FT article also cites PredictIt markets on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris respective candidacy odds in the paragraph prior.

The FT article also cites PredictIt markets on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris respective candidacy odds

so the circle is complete

Included that just to highlight the spread of prediction markets this election cycle.

A British newspaper says that 'several donors and operatives' say that some Congressional representatives say that they expect Biden to step down.

This is less evidence than we already had before the UN speech, but by all means update on it and buy more YES shares.

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