US Midterms MEGA Market

Question

Resolves according to major media reporting and race calls(such as associated press). If needed, wait for official results.

Clarifications:

Any senate election has margin of victory of 0.5% or less. Resolves on deciding round if ranked choice/runoff

Any senate candidate wins with 47% or less of the vote. Resolves based on deciding round result if runoff/ranked

Any senate race NOT called by the associated press 2 days after polls closed? Resolves based on poll closing time in the state, by the latest poll closing time

Any Republican held senate seat is called by the associated press within 2 minutes of polls closing in the state. Resolves based on final poll closing

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Any Republican senate candidate says the election was stolen, cheated, or fraud stopped them from winning, before Nov 6 11.59pm ET, followed by Abdul El Sayed and James Talarico both win by 2.5% or more and Trump falsely declares victory/says his candidate won in a race they did not (before 11.59pm et Nov 6) are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Nov 1, 2026).

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