In his announcement that he would not seek to be the democratic nominee, Biden said:
“I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision.”
These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the exact sequence of words during the event referred to in this letter.
Hopefully determining which event this refers to will be straightforward. I expect that it will be Biden's first speech or event with the press this week, but it's possible I'll need to make a judgment call.
I'll try to keep this market regularly updated as it becomes clear what event this will refer to.
In the case of ambiguity, I'll defer to mods for advice.
If he gives no such speech, all options will N/A.
If the speech is announced in advance, I may close the market before it begins.
This will follow the same rules as the Trump-isms Debate Megamarket—see the original market for more detailed resolution examples.
You can add your own responses, but note (1) I intend to be strict with resolution (following the rules below), & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.
Resolution examples:
Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".
Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winnings" or "winner" do not count for "winning".
However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions can count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").
Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" = "January sixth".
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People are also trading
@traders Biden dropped out -> we get a new VP. Time to bet on what Walz-isms will pop up during the DNC
@traders IT'S TIME. Kamala is officially the nominee. Time to bet on what she'll say in her DNC acceptance speech: /Ziddletwix/kamalaisms-megamarket-which-exact-w
The era of Biden-isms is over. The era of Kamala-isms has just begun.
"Pennsylvania" is a yes. He said "Scranton, Pennsylvania" 9:41
@traders Alright I went through the transcript, and resolved all the words/phrases that I found as YES. That means I plan to resolve everything else NO. I'll wait a day, so you can point out anything that I missed. Please LMK!
my personal disappointment is that my NO on "Washington" didn't pan out because of "George Washington" (not the city). i was only imagining the city, rough.
I think he's said Pennsylvania, God, next generation, and the soul of America. You should watch the tape though
part of that is because i said people who submitted answers would get liquidity returned. but part of it is that i want people to freely use limit orders, and if i leave it open during the speech that means anyone who didn't close their limit orders in time loses bigly. so if it had been a surprise that would have been ok, but the intent was to close before he speaks