Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in his post-dropout address to the nation?
326
8kṀ86k
resolved Jul 26
Resolved
NO
"Malarkey"
Resolved
NO
"Folks, folks"
Resolved
NO
“Here’s the deal”
Resolved
NO
"Greatest honor of my life"
Resolved
NO
"Most pro-union president" OR "most pro-union administration"
Resolved
NO
"Kitchen table"
Resolved
NO
"Under assault"
Resolved
NO
"Hunter"
Resolved
NO
"Beau"
Resolved
NO
"Defend democracy"
Resolved
NO
“Polls” or “polling”
Resolved
NO
“Betting” or “prediction markets” or “Polymarket”
Resolved
NO
“Age”
Resolved
NO
“Endorse”
Resolved
YES
"God"
Resolved
YES
"Health"
Resolved
NO
“Best chance”
Resolved
YES
“God” but not counting “God bless…”
Resolved
NO
"The very idea"
Resolved
NO
"Number one"

In his announcement that he would not seek to be the democratic nominee, Biden said: 

“I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision.”  

These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the exact sequence of words during the event referred to in this letter.

  • Hopefully determining which event this refers to will be straightforward. I expect that it will be Biden's first speech or event with the press this week, but it's possible I'll need to make a judgment call.

    • I'll try to keep this market regularly updated as it becomes clear what event this will refer to.

    • In the case of ambiguity, I'll defer to mods for advice.

    • If he gives no such speech, all options will N/A.

    • If the speech is announced in advance, I may close the market before it begins.

  • This will follow the same rules as the Trump-isms Debate Megamarket—see the original market for more detailed resolution examples.

  • You can add your own responses, but note (1) I intend to be strict with resolution (following the rules below), & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.

Resolution examples:

  • Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".

  • Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winnings" or "winner" do not count for "winning".

  • However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions can count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").

  • Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" = "January sixth".

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ8,941
2Ṁ831
3Ṁ604
4Ṁ493
5Ṁ273
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy