Pacific time. Things like airports, banks, hospitals, 911, etc. The 75% is subjective, if it isn't obvious me, Joshua, and Semiotic will resolve it by consensus. In cases like these there aren't possible good objective criteria, it's either subjective or have no market at all, and subjective is better than nothing imo.
My current intent is this is about public-facing functionality people use, things that users will notice. If a bunch of internal services for analytics or something are still down but users see a service that works we can't really measure that!
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By reviewing a bunch of specific examples that went down and finding when they were reported to come back, significantly above 75% of combined banks, 911, airports, hospitals, stores, etc were back up before midnight Friday PT. Does anyone disagree, or think I'm missing other notable services that went down and came back up later?
I'm not completely sure I understand the case for NO given the market criteria? Public facing functionality seems to be (completely subjectively) >90% restored, barring issues that are sort of logistically downstream of failures earlier in the day.
I have no idea about the % of machines that are fixed, but it seems not to be relevant. What public-facing functionality is still mostly out?
This is also my subjective experience! I had several problems with public facing services earlier today, and they're all fixed. I'm not sure why it went down to 10% either. This market isn't about my subjective experience though, it's about my subjective evaluation of what I'll read about the general experience, a sample of 1 person isn't enough.
I'll do a more detailed review tomorrow, but I googled four random specific examples of "airports, banks, hospitals, 911" that went down, and all of them seem to be back up.
If anyone has suggestions for large classes of user-facing "things" that went down that you'd like to be included in my subjective review, reply with them!
I think we're ignoring the thousands of devices that need to be manually fixed. I spent hours yesterday fixing cloud devices alone.
curious for no bettors below 20% to give arguments for why they thought it should resolve no that confidently? i'd like to make sure i'm not missing something.
polymarket's doesn't have the 75%, it just says:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the IT outages linked to CrowdStrike, are resolved by 11:59 PM ET on July 19, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution will be based on official statements from CrowdStrike or a consensus of credible reporting indicating that the affected services are mostly operational, with only minor issues remaining.
911 seems to be back to normal where it was affected. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/live-blog/rcna162669
Many flights were cancelled but they seem to be back in the air now.
We’ll get some more data about flights in 2 days (data updates for the day before), so Sunday we’ll be able to see how many flights departed on Sat.
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/current-operation-status-for-us-airports/
As for banks, at least online banking seems to be back up as of 2pm today: https://6abc.com/post/many-banks-recovering-after-global-outage-takes-down/15071715/
Airports seem to be back to normal today: https://www.airlines.org/dataset/current-operation-status-for-us-airports/
I think pretty much everything mentioned in the description (airports, 911, banks, hospitals) is back to pretty much normal operation.
