Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)

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Prize Markets US Politics 2024 US Presidential Election Trump VP

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Resolves YES if Trump's vice presidential running mate is officially announced as one of the following three people:

Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)

These are widely considered the top contenders as of today (mid-June). Context: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/briefing/donald-trump-vice-president-pick.html

Otherwise resolves NO (that includes if Trump drops out before selecting a running mate, for example).

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Trump cannot be predicted

"The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves."

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://manifold.markets/DanielRohrer/will-donald-trump-select-a-running?r=RGFuaWVsUm9ocmVy

reposted

@traders This is now a prize market!

bought Ṁ50 NO

Vance is the only one that's loyal + half-decent

I'd bet yes if the three were Stefanik, Carson, and Vance

Arb:

What about Mike Pence?

Thought he “hires the BEST PEOPLE”

I like this format because even I could barely keep track of the vp candidates lol. This way we can bet on whether it'll be a surprise pick or not without having to get too specific