Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."
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Looking through this, it seems that most of the actual mana put on the option belongs to @Jack1, so, mister, uh... Jack, any particular reason?
@predyx_markets I am open to being told I don't know something, aye! But I want to know what it is I don't know :)
@b575 what makes you think he's a nobody? He is one of the most talked about candidates and when he wins the Senate election in georgia a swing state easily, will make him even better
@Jack1 "Most talked about" is not a characteristics stable over the years. I don't see any evidence to treat this any different from Sarah Palin 2008. (To quote ERB: "Your fifteen minutes of fame came and went.") And as for "when" he wins the Senate election... if there is a real blue wave, it won't be noticed, and if there isn't, he won't win, that's what being a swing state means.
What's going on with the low odds for Vance? Do people expect that he'll struggle because Trumpism is discredited? or because he's a charisma vacuum? Or he'll get dragged down by the groyper stuff? He's gotta have decent odds of winning the nomination (>70%?), and modern presidential elections have been very close (>40% of an R president?)
@Stephen9zEAA Manifold has him at around 50-55% odds of winning the Republican nomination, and this implies about a 40% chance of winning the election conditional on the nomination, which seems if anything optimistic at this point.
@bens why so low on the nomination? Something I'm missing about intra-R politics?or just necessary to win the general?
@Stephen9zEAA Hah, that's funny, I literally just asked the opposite question two days ago, I think 21% is outrageously high. I said "1%" but that was hyperbole and I'd probably put my odds somewhere around 5%.
My thinking is that his connection to trump will drag him into the abyss. If trends continue, trump's approval rating could very easily in the high -30s by 2028. We're already seeing 30 point swings in special elections. By 2028 it'll be insurmountable.
I respect the possibility of a shakeup that turns things around, but he needs something big to turn this ship around. I don't think an ordinary miracle would be enough.
I guess as a baseline, you could say Vance got saddled with a bottom 1/46 percentile debuff (being the VP of the 46/46 worst US President). So in order to beat Newsom or whoever, he'd need a counteracting, top 1/46 percentile buff. So his base rate odds of winning the election are 2.17 percent? It feels like shaky reasoning though so idk.
@JonathanSheehy But that's how we improve. Also apparently they break it down by category and I'm doing good in politics tho???
@nikki The ones I've spoken to are a mix of "I had no idea it would be this bad" and "Did you know Emmanuel Macron married his own dad?"
@JonathanSheehy I'm sorry, I don't mean to be on a combative footing like this. My original comment ends with the sentence "What am I missing?" And that wasn't rhetorical. My brain is telling me 5% and I don't have enough hubris to think I've outsmarted the market here. Evidently you're better calibrated than me, but you won't tell me what mistake my brain is making here. Is it underestimating Maga loyalty? Because my brain is hitting back at that again and telling me it just won't be enough. Is this one of those times where we just have to wait so my brain can see the result and make the update when vance wins?
@JonathanSheehy no worries I didn't think you were being combative. I am mostly going by the outside view (VPs usually win the nomination when they run; general elections have mostly been quite close this century). I'd ballpark that at like 38% for generic incumbent VP. And unfortunately I think the electoral penalty for being irresponsible, callous, and odious is less than 5% of the vote. I'd have trouble going below like 25% for Vance unless I was very confident in my ability to forecast the economic and geopolitical situation. But maybe I'm wrong!
@StephenBank What about the incumbent penalty? To my understanding, very few incumbents around the world are keeping power.
(It's not hugely relevant but some exceptions I'm aware of were Canada and Australia, that are hard to interpret as anything besides swings against Trump given the timing and strength of the swings as the elections came up)
@BodeyBaker I'm definitely basing a lot of this idea off this 2024 piece:
https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893?syn-25a6b1a6=1
But it does seem like a lot of the world isn't too happy about their situation and is taking it out on their current governments for the years since. I don't have quick data for that though