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MANIFOLD
2028 US Presidential Election winner?
962
Ṁ160kṀ1.2m
2028
18%
JD Vance
15%
Gavin Newsom
14%
Other
12%
Marco Rubio
6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%
Josh Shapiro
4%
Tucker Carlson
4%
Kamala Harris
3%
Jon Ossoff
2%
Pete Buttigieg
2%
Steve Bannon
1.8%
No 2028 Election
1.7%
Donald Trump (Sr.)
1.4%
Ron DeSantis
1%
Thomas Massie
1%
Andy Beshear

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."

Request your candidate in comments.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Can you add Steve Bannon? He's probably running and I think he has a good chance to win

@Bandors Added.

@predyx_markets 650 mana on Bannon, let it ride! Even if he doesn't win, I think the odds of his betting odds going up are strong

@Bandors yes even I believe odds will move up soon. Thanks for suggesting him as an option.

@Jack1 Thomas Massie added here as well.

@predyx_markets I don’t see him

@Jack1 Yeah - I'm notcing that too. I'm getting some technical error. Can we have some manifold devs look into it? @manifold

@predyx_markets You should be able to retry, and it should work. Let me know if it doesn't though

@Gen Thanks, let me retry.

@predyx_markets It actually seems like it's there but doesn't appear on search - maybe something more broken happened than I thought

@predyx_markets actually I think I saw it come up as you added it nvm lol

@Gen it’s gone. I saw it, Then when I refreshed the page it’s not there anymore

@Gen Same - got the same error but it went away before I could screenshot it:

@predyx_markets it hasn’t taken anything from his balance, and if you look at liquidity history, no answer has been added for months @Gen

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Jack1 Yeah, to make it appear instantly it shows briefly before the error and then disappears. If the error comes 5s later it will disappear after 5s. This is weird but intended

The 3 rows means it was retrying properly, but failing.

I briefly removed creator only while I was testing so I could pull error logs etc., it still struggled for me (had to retry 3 times) but one of the 3 survived whatever issue exists. I'll try to find out what was breaking it and prevent it, lmk if you see this issue come up again.

My avatar is now going to be stuck on that answer (sorry), but at least you saved m1k for liquidity

@Gen Thanks for your help :) and saving me liquidity.

Guys - Is Thomas Massie worth adding to the outcome list?

bought Ṁ50 YES

Where is Michelle Obama?

opened aṀ500 YES at 7% order

@brod

67 🤹🤹🤹🤹

@prismatic i have the humor of a 5 year old :)

bought Ṁ500 NO

What's going on with this? Jon Ossoff is basically a nobody, and yet someone invested yuuuuuge mana into putting him to unbelievably high 4% (it must be yuuuuuge if my dumping 500 M barely moved the needle).

Looking through this, it seems that most of the actual mana put on the option belongs to @Jack1, so, mister, uh... Jack, any particular reason?

@b575 don’t underestimate Jack1. he’s a pro political trader.

@predyx_markets I am open to being told I don't know something, aye! But I want to know what it is I don't know :)

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 3% order

@b575 what makes you think he's a nobody? He is one of the most talked about candidates and when he wins the Senate election in georgia a swing state easily, will make him even better

@Jack1 "Most talked about" is not a characteristics stable over the years. I don't see any evidence to treat this any different from Sarah Palin 2008. (To quote ERB: "Your fifteen minutes of fame came and went.") And as for "when" he wins the Senate election... if there is a real blue wave, it won't be noticed, and if there isn't, he won't win, that's what being a swing state means.