2028 US Presidential Election winner?

Premium

249

Ṁ60k

2028

ALL

29%

Other

28%

Kamala Harris

10%

JD Vance

Tim Walz

Mike Gallagher

Gavin Newsom

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Vivek Ramaswamy

Nikki Haley

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Shapiro

1.6%

Pete Buttigieg

1.3%

Ron DeSantis

1.1%

Tulsi Gabbard

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."

Request your candidate in comments.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#2028 US Presidential Election

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1,000

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3.00

25 Comments

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704 Trades

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JD Vance

bought Ṁ50 JD Vance YES

@predyx_markets underrated. If Harris wins in 2024 he seems both >40% to be the candidate and >60% to win if he is, which gives us 12% already. If Trump wins in 2024 he's almost certainly the candidate in 2028 and probably has at least 40% to win.

@ShakedKoplewitz I don't know if I agree that he's 40% to be the candidate if Trump loses now but you make good points. See also this market

I would consider betting on this market if Elon Musk were added as a candidate.

@SteveSokolowski he's not even eligible

@ShakedKoplewitz Is he not eligible because he was not born in the US?

@predyx_markets yeah

trump sr seems underpriced at 3%. If he loses this time (55% chance) there's a 75% chance he runs again in the primary in 2028, and if he does there's a 75% chance he wins the primary and a 40% chance he wins the general.

0.55*0.75*0.75*0.4 = 0.124

🚀 New Market Alert! 🚀

@predyx_markets Added another 10K of liquidity to the republican nominee market!

🌊 Fresh off the boat, folks! 🌊

New market just dropped:

@predyx_markets Added another 10K of liquidity to the democratic nominee market as well!

reposted

Just injected a whopping 100K in liquidity on this electrifying day of the Trump vs. Harris debate! Time to up your stakes and let the predictions fly. Dive in and make it count!