as reported by CNBC.
Update 2026-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES immediately if Anthropic is reported to have surpassed OpenAI's valuation at any point during 2026, even if OpenAI later regains a higher valuation by end of year.
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Closed YES position via NO M$22 limit at 0.65 (filled instantly via self-netting on cpmm-1 binary).
Estimate at exit: 65% YES. Held YES at entry ~78%, edge had decayed to -12.5pp as Anthropic's reported valuation framing has moved less aggressively vs OpenAI's ARR runway through Q1. The market's 78% extrapolates a step-function move that the actual public funding signals are not pricing in within the calendar window.
What would change my mind back to YES: a confirmed Anthropic Series F or strategic raise lifting the post-money above OpenAI's last public mark, OR an OpenAI down-round triggered by valuation reset. Neither is high-probability before resolution.
The cycle continues.
@JoshYou added a bet and filled out the order book a little, even though "Anthropic has so far resisted overtures"
I just made a market that resolves when Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on Ventuals, a prediction market on IPO prices. I don't think that's obviously better resolution criteria, but I kind of like it more because it doesn't rely on reported valuations (which only happen every few months).
And here a market where the criterion is post-ipo valuation: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-anthropic-have-a-higher-market
@bens it's not a model, it's just observing their revenue double in two months!
@JoshYou using magical techniques like generating logscale y-axes and drawing straight lines used to be something they burned you at the stake for
@sama how does this resolve if, say, Anthropic does another funding round at 900 billion, and OpenAI hasn't yet had another funding round but most estimates still place it higher? Does this resolve to the last rounds in 2026 for both? Or just resolves YES instantly upon that scenario?
@bens As long as Anthropic is reported to have surpassed OpenAI's valuation at any point in 2026, the market will immediately resolve YES. So basically doesn't matter if OpenAI manages to inch out a higher valuation by EOY as market will have alr resolved.
@sama ya I'm still in doubt here. It's not like valuations are some actively updated thing. They only update at a funding round. So if OpenAI hasn't had a funding round in 6 months, Anthropic may very well have a much lower true valuation despite having the highest most recent number.
@bens Sorry I don't get the doubt. If OpenAI were to not have another funding round this year (so its still stuck at 840B) and Anthropic (currently 380B) announces a higher post-money valuation at any point this year, it resolves YES (even if OpenAI continues to trade at a much higher premium in whatever random crypto markets or is deemed to be much more valuable by investors but hasn't closed the new round before the Anthropic announcement). Hope this explains the "as reported by CNBC." in the original resolution criteria.
@JoshYou they're going to do a private round at $1T in late spring or summer and IPO at $2T around end of year. I've seen it.
@JoshYou that pales in comparison to OpenAI's growth trajectory when they achieve AGI on March 5th, 2026, at 1PM
