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MANIFOLD
When will Anthropic surpass OpenAI on Ventuals?
2
Ṁ6kṀ493
2027
July 31, 2026
37%
Before May 2026
49%
Before Jun 2026
60%
Before Jul 2026
65%
Before Aug 2026
68%
Before Sep 2026
71%
Before Oct 2026
73%
Before Nov 2026
75%
Before Dec 2026
77%
Before Jan 2027

I don't really understand what Ventuals is, but my sense is that it's a prediction market on companies' valuations at IPO, which I think kinda makes it like trading private companies' stocks.

As of this writing, Anthropic's market cap on Ventuals is $711B, while OpenAI's is $834B.

I will say that Anthropic's market cap surpasses OpenAI's at the start of the first 24-hour period during which Anthropic's lowest market cap during that time is higher than OpenAI's highest market cap during that time.

Link to Anthropic on Ventuals; Link to OpenAI on Ventuals

For example, over the last 24 hours, here are the price graphs of Anthropic and OpenAI:

Anthropic's lowest market cap during the period was $678B, while OpenAI's highest was (very briefly) $896B.

Market context
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People on this platform are paying 45% annualized in funding rate to go long Anthropic at an implied 740B valuation