This market matches Sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI revenues from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
See the other manifold questions here
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the best estimate of the sum of December 2026 annualized revenues (monthly revenue × 12) of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. The resolver will primarily rely on publicly reported figures from reliable news sources (e.g., The New York Times, Reuters, The Information, Bloomberg), official company statements, or direct announcements from company CEOs.
If the most recent reports are from earlier in 2026, the resolver may extrapolate or use projections to estimate December revenue. If there are conflicting reports, the resolver will use their best judgment to determine which is more reliable.
Eli Lifland is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions.
Buckets are left-inclusive: e.g., $50-60B includes $50.0B but not $60.0B.
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@jim I think at a certain point, the second derivative kind of has to be negative but who can say lol
@bens at the start of the year, on the survey, I think I put around $100 billion. That looks like it'll be an underestimate. But you could also model this as increasing by $5 billion per company every month and then you get to $150 billion. I think that's probably about the floor?
edit: "floor" is not really what I meant, I meant that that's the "floor" of my median forecast lmao, sorry
@bens i think that model utility way more than doubles with each time horizon doubling and that leads to something like exponential revenue growth. There are possible complications like labs turning compute inward as AI becomes more and more capable of contributing to AI research etc., but frankly I think that even taking that into account we'll probably see >$500 bil.