A long-dated version of Bayesian's market with December 2026 resolution.

This market matches Sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI revenues question from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest, but extends the resolution date to December 31, 2030.

Resolution criteria

Resolves to the best estimate of the sum of December 2030 annualized revenues (monthly revenue × 12) of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. The resolver will primarily rely on publicly reported figures from reliable news sources (e.g., The New York Times, Reuters, The Information, Bloomberg), official company statements, or direct announcements from company CEOs.

If the most recent reports are from earlier in 2030, the resolver may extrapolate or use projections to estimate December revenue. If there are conflicting reports, the resolver will use their best judgment to determine which is more reliable. The final value will be rounded to the nearest billion.