Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Anthropic completes a public stock listing before OpenAI.

This market resolves to NO if OpenAI completes a public stock listing before Anthropic.

Resolution Rules:

• Definition of Public Listing: A company is deemed to have completed its public listing when its common stock begins trading on a major regulated stock exchange (such as the NYSE or NASDAQ) via a traditional initial public offering (IPO), direct listing, or SPAC merger.

• Timing: The relative order will be determined by the calendar date (and, if necessary, the precise timestamp of the first public trade) on which each company’s shares begin trading. If both list on the exact same day, the market resolves to YES if Anthropic's first public trade occurs earlier in the day than OpenAI's, and NO otherwise.

• Acquisitions or Dissolutions: If one company is acquired by or merged into an already-public firm (and does not debut as its own newly listed stock ticker) or is dissolved, it is disqualified. The other company will win the market (resolving YES or NO accordingly) once it completes its public listing. If both companies are acquired or dissolved without ever listing, the market will resolve to N/A.

• Time Cutoff: If neither company has completed a public listing by December 31, 2030, this market will resolve 50/50.

Background

Both artificial intelligence startups filed confidential S-1 registration statements with the SEC in June 2026—Anthropic on June 1 and OpenAI on June 8. However, their listing timelines have begun to diverge.

While Anthropic is reportedly targeting a public debut as early as late 2026 (with some forecasts aiming for October or December), reports in late June 2026 from The New York Times and Bloomberg indicate that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027. Sources suggest OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is hesitant to proceed at any valuation below $1 trillion, a threshold advisers warn may be difficult to clear immediately given recent public market volatility and the performance of other major listings.

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