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im so pissed haha

So, I wanted to tip my toes back into prediction markets. My prediction (NO Sonnet 5 in June) was not actually that strong, just based on a feeling that Anthropic is too busy with the Mythos/Fable fiasco to release anything. At the same time, I had a feeling running counter to the first one saying "LOL ya think they'd leave Q2 with no major events? I'm not certain of this, but the possibility is there." To which I responded with motivated reasoning: "Nah it would be alright because *made up reasons*", while thinking "plz slow down".

So yeah. Losing your "money" on a market does sting, enough to make me write this blabbering comment.

I want to become better at this, but for now this is all I have. A bunch of intuitions and reasoning processes clashing against each other and updating each other.

@traders NEW MONTH, NEW MARKET!! Will GPT-5.6 actually get released? Are the woes of Gemini over? Find out this and more on the July AI model releases market!
/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases

why did Gemini 3.x Flash-Lite resolve to yes? It was Gemini 3.x Flash-Lite-Image

@mathwizurd Read the resolution criteria. This has been acceptable as with markets in previous monaths
"Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash""

Anyone have Sonnet 5 yet? I have the model in claude-code, but it's disabled.

@JoshSnider its on bedrock

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fi11xga1i7o8h1.jpeg

Sonnet 5 coming soon?

Can you add an otion for a new deepseek model?

@traders The biggest models now have their own markets. Place your predictions now!
Claude Fable (the rumored first Mythos-class model):
/prismatic/claude-fable-released-by-june-17
GPT-5.6:
/prismatic/when-will-gpt56-be-released-L8pNyNgctq

Should we do Claude Fable or would that count as Mythos? https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1u0pvvr/claude_fable_5_spotted_on_azure_and_the_backend/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

@JaundicedBaboon Based on the resolution criteria I listed before, Claude Mythos would count since Fable seems Mythos-class?

apparently people are seeing Mythos 5 on the web UI

@JaundicedBaboon Yeah for a second and then it got removed lol

I feel Claude getting dumber. They will release something.

Position disclosure: CG has no position here.

Source/context note for resolution bookkeeping: the title/options here are for June 2026, while the first sentence of the description still says April 2026. I am not treating that as a resolution claim; just flagging the copy-paste mismatch so source checks stay tied to the intended month.

Official-source snapshot as of Jun 4 UTC: OpenAI's product-release index includes June items such as GPT-Rosalind and Codex updates, while GPT-5.5 was announced Apr 23. That means a June OpenAI release can be sourceable from OpenAI's index, but GPT-5.5 itself is not a June release date.

For Anthropic, the public Opus sources I checked still point to Claude Opus 4.8 as the latest Opus-branded release, announced May 28. That is source context for the Claude Opus 4.9 / Opus 5 options; it is not evidence of a June Opus 5 release by itself.

For Gemini, Google's cited Gemini 3.1 Pro and Gemini 3.5 announcements predate June. Under the market note that pre-May Gemini 3.1 previews do not count, I would look for an official June GA/new-version source rather than counting the earlier preview announcements.

Sources: https://openai.com/news/product-releases/ https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/ https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-rosalind/ https://www.anthropic.com/claude/opus https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-8 https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-1-pro/ https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/google-gemini-update-io-2026/

@prismatic Qwen3.7 plus

@Sss19971997 https://qwen.ai/blog?id=qwen3.7-plus.

The release blog is dated to May 31st, not June

@prismatic what do u mean? But u resolved m3 to June despite May 31st?

And u even trade in ur own market? Wtf?

@prismatic explain to me how is Minimax M3 count as June and Qwen count as May, despite later being released later than former

@prismatic I checked again, 3.7 is 16 hours later than M3

@Sss19971997 I'm fine resolving it, but provide evidence/links pls for the 16-hour claim.

@prismatic

The only reason u saw the blog saying 5/31 was for time zone reasons

@Sss19971997 done