Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

1.5k

29kṀ1.3m

2029

17%

Other

15%

Gavin Newsom

13%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

11%

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Cory Booker

Gretchen Whitmer

Tim Walz

J.B. Pritzker

Andy Beshear

1.3%

Jeff Jackson

1.2%

Raphael Warnock

1.1%

Stephen A Smith

Wes Moore

None

Mark Cuban

Jon Ossoff

Mark Kelly

Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028

Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"

Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added

2028 Election

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US Politics

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Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?

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Can we add Chris Van Hollen?

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1912598180484771998
Gavin was taken 6th in their draft!

Could Andrew Cuomo be added?

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 5% order

i think this might be a career-killer of a photo op for her

@Marnix if you hear her talk she's not very quick on her feet anyway, it was always going to be an uphill struggle for her

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 2% order

How does this resolve if there's no presidential election in 2028 but the Democratic Party goes through the motions of selecting a "nominee" anyway?

@DylanSlagh can we resolve Jimmy Carter as "No"?

@BlackCrusade It's dependent multi-choice, so no, it can only be resolved all at once.

@BoltonBailey Ah thanks, didn't know.

@XiaoLi is this a delete your mana market?

@BlackCrusade End date is 3333, so you never know

bought Ṁ50 YES

Is there a reason Tim Kaine was at 0%? He's a reasonable contender.

@TimothyBandors I feel like there will not be a lot of appetite in the Democratic party for people previously on tickets who lost to Trump.

@BoltonBailey Wow, I completely forgot that he was on the ticket in 2016. I think that election was extremely focused on Hillary vs Trump ("I'm with her"!), so I'm skeptical that it would be a big problem for Kaine.