Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028
Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
1,000
3.00Is there a name for this effect where people will take long enough odds no matter how nonsensical?
@benshindel that makes sense. Is the only way to see that to go back into logs and check for the absence of buying the option, yet holding it?
@ZaneMiller someone else bought up Feinstein and I sold my shares for M10. told you it was a good investment.
@dlin007 brother, don't blame Manifold for this. If you have information others don't, go dump some mana.
@dlin007 The problem is people who cling on to other political person endorsements.
Nobody gives af about some 84 yr old guys endorsement.
Nobody in the grand scheme of things gives af about "connecting with black voters", how about "connecting with all voters".
@ScipioFabius guy is on literally the most left leaning prediction site and is calling out his own party 😆 🤣 typical Dems.
@DylanSlagh Done with her. She can “eye another White House run” all she wants but we’re not doing that again. Already fatigued from it.
@fakebaechallenge yeah and the media spent years hyping up Ron DeSantis as a challenger to Trump for 2024. It’s noise.
I would've thought she'd be closer to 15-20 at this point
@dittopoop lol once again Manifold is delusional in predictable ways. Did people actually watch Josh Shapiro at the DNC? Do they think he has the connections or chops to win black/minority voters in the South which is prerequisite to winning the Democratic nomination? Pete + Shapiro would win the Manifold caucus by 90% but have precisely like 1.5% odds between them