Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Question

This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have control of the House of Representatives if it secures a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have control of the Senate if it holds:

A majority of voting Senate seats, or

Exactly half of the seats plus the Vice Presidency (which casts tie-breaking votes).

A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called. Candidates not formally affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered aligned with one based on their publicly declared intent to caucus.

If control of the House is unclear under the above rules, control will be determined by the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the House elected after the 2026 midterms.

If control of the Senate is unclear, it will be determined by the party affiliation of the first Senate Majority Leaderelected after the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve once Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News have all conclusively called the outcomes of both chambers. If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results certified by official government sources.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, R Senate, D House, followed by Democrats Sweep and Republicans Sweep are most likely. See the market for live updates (126 traders, as of Jul 10, 2026).