Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former U.S. President Barack Obama is arrested on or before December 31, 2025. Verification will be based on credible news reports from reputable sources such as The New York Times, BBC, or official government statements. If no such reports are available by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of July 21, 2025, there have been no credible reports of Barack Obama being arrested. Previous claims about his arrest have been debunked by fact-checking organizations. For instance, in December 2020, false reports circulated alleging that Obama was arrested for espionage; these were thoroughly debunked by Snopes and PolitiFact. (snopes.com, politifact.com) Similarly, in 2017, fabricated stories claimed he was involved in a drug bust in Japan, which were also proven false. (snopes.com)

Considerations

Given the prevalence of misinformation regarding high-profile figures like Obama, traders should rely on verified information from established news outlets when making predictions. The market will only consider arrests that are substantiated by credible sources.