Resolution Criteria: Gold Missing from Fort Knox?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed that the U.S. Bullion Depository at Fort Knox holds less than 147,300,000 troy ounces of gold at any point between February 17, 2025, and June 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Key Conditions:
• Current Official Holdings: According to the U.S. Government, Fort Knox holds 147,341,858.38 troy ounces of gold (see: U.S. Treasury Gold Report).
• Qualifying Criteria for “Yes”: The market will resolve “Yes” if official U.S. government data confirms that Fort Knox’s gold reserves fall below 147,300,000 troy ounces during the resolution period.
• Exclusions:
• If gold is removed after February 17, 2025, it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
• If an audit confirms that there is no gold missing or that 147,300,000 troy ounces or more remain, the market will resolve to “No”.
**Market will resolve to N/A if no audit occurs by markets close date.
Resolution Sources:
The primary resolution source will be official U.S. Government disclosures, including reports from the Department of Government Efficiency or other relevant agencies. Reports from credible financial or governmental publications may also be considered.
Update 2025-02-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update:
Condition: If official data confirms that Fort Knox’s gold reserves fall below 147,300,000 troy ounces, the market will resolve to YES.
Irrespective of Accounting: This resolution applies even if any shortfall is accounted for or explained by adjustments noted in audits.
Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only Government Sources Will Be Considered
Only official government disclosures will be used to resolve the market.
Reports or perspectives from non-government sources, including credible financial publications, will not be taken into account.
1,000So let me see if I understand this correctly. Mint was last audited in 1974. Are we that confident the audit absolutely accurate, with no variance in the weighing methods, that wouldn't imply at least a 50/50 chance the number ends up above or below the the 143,000,000 number? No funny business required for this to have a much higher chance of resolving yes. Other commodities fail audits all the time because... People counted wrong or something
@gamedev Gold has far higher security standards than other commodities. None of it has been moved since the 70s and there have been regular sample audits.. There's no way there's a 50/50 chance that $100M in gold is just 'missing' without some funny business going on.
@Simon74fe this market is not about 100m, it's about whether there is a variance of roughly .03% in the official number
@Simon74fe ah I see your point. I didn't do the math on the dollar amount. Still, I don't know how much faith I have in the official (50 year old?) figures if a lot of attention gets put on this. Small margin of error doesn't seem insane to me
@Quroe Enticing and Thrilling, I can't wait to join the discord group of Ocean 17. Rumor has it, they need 3 more people.
@predyx_markets ummm, okay... are we counting the DOGE website (which just got a polymarket market voided due to lying), or just real gov sources?
@benshindel Only government sources will be considered. Is https://doge.gov not a government website? I thought any .gov TLD was restricted to government agency only. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/establishing-and-implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency/
You might want to be careful here. I would resolve to something like “Consensus of Credible Sources” not the DOGE website which has already been demonstrated to be engaging in pretty blatant misinformation (and I hate that word, believe me)
https://x.com/alicefromqueens/status/1892326916692037656?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg
Also, what if there is less then the last audit but its somehow accounted for? As in they know where it went, or where it was used up
@PoliticalEconomyPK If Fort Knox’s gold reserves is below 147,300,000 troy ounces, then market will to YES irrespctive of it being accounted for. Please let me know your thoughts.
@PoliticalEconomyPK Great point. I think it should resolve to N/A is no audit has been done by markets close date. Please let me know your thoughts and I will update the resolution criteria accordingly.