Using Scott Alexander as my guinea pig, I have created quite a few different types of scandel markets. They all have their own flaws.

• The ones about crimes may be lower than you'd expect, since the legal system moves so slowly and the conviction might not go through before the end date. And there are lots of things Scott could do that will make his friends angry at him, but wouldn't be a felony.

• The ones about accusations are easy for a bad actor to manipulate.

• The ones about social outrage are highly subjective and will probably result in arguments over resolution, and they can be self-fulfilling if people make committments to ostracise anyone whose market goes above a certain percentage.

• The one that's a poll may end up being more about the makeup of Manifold's user base than it is about anything Scott was or was not found to have done, and is also highly subjective.

I'm making this post as a central place to discuss the upsides and downsides of different market types, and hopfully arrive at a robust structure that we can use for markets on the reliability of public figures across the board.