Will Scott Alexander be for or against scandal markets in December?
17
132
αΉ€350
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
YES

Resolves immediately between 2022-12-01 and close (2022-12-31) to:

NO if Scott publicly states that scandal markets are a bad idea.

YES if Scott publicly states that scandal markets are a good idea.

N/A if his public stance is neutral/uncertain.

(yes = for, no = against)

Only the first statement will be considered, unless it was a misunderstanding/typo etc.

Scott's public stance status at open:

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-twitter-chaos-edition

I will not bet on this market.

Get αΉ€1,000 play money

πŸ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1αΉ€37
2αΉ€36
3αΉ€28
4αΉ€10
5αΉ€9
Sort by:
predicted YES

If only this market had been a little longer, it would have gotten exciting!

For now, I think direct scandal markets are a bad idea, and more careful scandal markets like the one above should be started only with caution.

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-1302023

Does anyone have evidence pro/con here? Otherwise I'd resolve to YES.

predicted YES

And help us figure out how to make good scandal markets here.

Related markets:

Will Scott Alexander be for or against scandal markets in December?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition