
Will Scott Alexander be for or against scandal markets in December?
17
350Ṁ1200resolved Jan 11
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves immediately between 2022-12-01 and close (2022-12-31) to:
NO if Scott publicly states that scandal markets are a bad idea.
YES if Scott publicly states that scandal markets are a good idea.
N/A if his public stance is neutral/uncertain.
(yes = for, no = against)
Only the first statement will be considered, unless it was a misunderstanding/typo etc.
Scott's public stance status at open:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-twitter-chaos-edition
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ37 | |
2 | Ṁ36 | |
3 | Ṁ28 | |
4 | Ṁ10 | |
5 | Ṁ9 |
Sort by:
If only this market had been a little longer, it would have gotten exciting!
For now, I think direct scandal markets are a bad idea, and more careful scandal markets like the one above should be started only with caution.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
5% chance
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander get divorced?
19% chance
Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander do anything before 2030 that I personally would consider highly unethical?
6% chance
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander be a guest on any podcast whatsoever before 2028?
33% chance
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
4% chance
Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?
65% chance