Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
16
30
290
2030
3%
chance

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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Does a micronation count as a country?

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Bidding 5 mana as 1.5% just seems too low (even though I have a highly positive opinion of Scott); public figures get enough extra scrutiny and Scott already has a hit piece about him in a large newspaper. He presumably doesn't have the power to evade charges. EA, Poly, and many of his beliefs are counter cultural.

sold Ṁ38 of NO

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.