Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
16
30
Ṁ820Ṁ290
2030
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
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Bidding 5 mana as 1.5% just seems too low (even though I have a highly positive opinion of Scott); public figures get enough extra scrutiny and Scott already has a hit piece about him in a large newspaper. He presumably doesn't have the power to evade charges. EA, Poly, and many of his beliefs are counter cultural.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
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