Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
9
47
190
2030
5%
chance

Another attempted operationalization of scandal markets. Resolves YES if Substack kicks Scott off the platform, or Scott choses to leave the platform under circumstances that make it seem likely that Substack would have kicked them off if they didn't leave themselves.

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

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bought Ṁ30 of NO

This almost feels like a prosocial sacrifice more so than a bet. I won’t make any Monopoly money on this one for 6 years? Yeah right.