Will anyone do significant harm to another person in order to manipulate a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Question

"Significant harm" includes but is not limited to:

Death.

Serious injury.

Theft of non-negligible amounts of money.

Framing someone for a serious crime.

Spreading false rumors about them resulting in reputational harm or damage to their professional career.

This also includes harm to an organization, even if no particular individual was significantly harmed.

This does not include things that could reasonably be considered friendly teasing, or that are consensual. It does not include attempts to do harm that fail. And it does not include a market "causing" harm on its own, where no single market participant chose to do something in order to manipulate the market. (e.g. a scandel market being at 80% and that person's friends start distrusting them.)

There doesn't have to be hard proof that they did it to manipulate a market, it just needs to seem likely.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 3, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.