Joined Jan 2022
Joined Jan 2022
My most important Manifold experiment is criminality risk in crypto. Before using a crypto exchange, I suggest checking for their founder here. https://manifold.markets/group/cryptochargemarkets Also my markets on U.S. 2024 election candidates. Among other factors, one may prefer candidates who aren't particularly high on criminality risk. https://manifold.markets/group/potus-2024-candidate-criminality
CryptoChargeMarketsFor the charge markets that are about people in crypto, or associated with cryptocurrencies. You can see a pre-emptive FAQ here.
EAChargeMarketsFor the subset of charge markets about people who are related to Effective Altruism. Includes some people who don't identify as EA and are only very indirectly related. Results so far are notably much lower than my crypto markets. You can see a pre-emptive FAQ here.
Jotto 999•11 days ago
CEO Criminality MarketsA criminal charge goup about people who are CEOs of major companies. Part of a larger series.
POTUS 2024 Candidate CriminalityA criminal charge goup about people who are running for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Part of a larger series.
Jotto 999•4 months ago
Felony charges in cryptoCrypto-related people 2024 U.S. Election Candidates EA-related people CEOs of major companies Pre-Emptive FAQ Why is there a criminal charge market about [person]? Most people didn’t suspect anything before SBF blew up, and most smart people got a great impression of him. That’s very instructive. If you only make criminality markets about people who already seem risky, you’re massively under-using them. Whatever happens to this experiment, most of the people in my markets will never be charged of anything. [Person]’s market has 2 traders, and they’re at 30%. Does that mean they have a high criminality risk? No. The price defaults to 50% at creation, which traders then update. There could just be a lack of interest in trading about that person. In the meantime, I recommend ignoring the price signals from markets until they have at least 5 traders. Should we shun anyone who doesn't have the lowest criminality risk? No. Mainly because there are other big factors to someone's productivity/cost to society, than just their criminality. For all I know, maybe the relationship could be n-shaped. That said, crime is a huge annual expense, even in rich democracies. Sometimes I see people request that other people ignore criminality risks. Those requests usually don't seem credible to me. What is a "felony"? What about countries that don't use the term? The intention was just to focus on "serious" crimes. Examples: wire fraud, murder, tax evasion, or robbery would count. But fines for possession of weed shouldn't count. Littering doesn't count...unless the person did it in sufficient amounts or repetitively, such that the judge sent them to prison. I'm considering switching the wording to "serious crime", to make the interpretability more general among countries. You're not going to make these about everybody, are you? I don't have time to make markets on everyone. If that happened, these would become normal (like credit scores). In the meantime, I'm trying to focus on people who are relatively influential or important. UPDATE: I decided to only include Wikipedia pages about people, and exclude any other links. Partly for administrative simplicity. But also to "go easier" on people who are too obscure to have a Wikipedia page. I see my market, and I think the price is wrong! Make a Manifold account and trade it to whatever price you think it should be. You're allowed to "insider trade" -- on average that helps the price get more accurate. Why are they all until the year 2030? For easier interpretation, they should all have the same timeframe. At some point I intend to start batches for 2040. I can think of important people you should have markets on. Please suggest them!